Explore / Analyst Lab · Baseball

The interesting part is in the splits.

A research notebook for the questions behind the box score: counts, innings, pitch sequences, fatigue, leverage, and changing styles. Some views are explorable today; others are clearly marked as future data work.

Research sources are linked. Illustrative research examples below are externally published aggregates—not reconstructed player-level results from our current database.

01 / The analyst's question

What happens when the lineup turns over?

Published MLB figures for starting pitchers, combined 2016–2025. This example is not yet calculated from our own pitch-by-pitch records.

Hitting against starters
First tripSecondThird
Source and interpretation

MLB's Times Through the Order Penalty glossary reports the 2016–2025 averages for starts. The pattern is descriptive; pitcher quality, batter quality and which starters remain in games affect the comparison. Individual pitchers need larger samples and selection corrections.

The question behind the chart

Is it fatigue—or familiarity?

Pitchers face a selectively tougher sample when they remain deep in a start. Which part comes from pitch count, which from seeing the same hitter again, and which from managers pulling struggling pitchers?

.713 → .780

OPS allowed, first to third trip, 2016–2025.

A 2026 study explicitly modeled the competing explanations and found that adjustment and selection assumptions matter. This is the sort of deeper analysis we'd like to make explorable.

Next data layer

Pitch/event rows with game ID, hitter, pitcher, pitch count, times-through-order, count, game state and outcome.

02 / The count changes everything

One pitch can reshape the plate appearance.

2025 MLB · OPS following count
Recorded outcome after reaching the count; not batting average *on* a pitch.
After 1–0
.806
After 0–1
.607

Source: MLB's catcher-framing glossary. This is an outcome conditioned on *reaching* a count and should not be mistaken for the causal effect of a single called strike.

Future visual / Count Matrix

Every 0–0 to 3–2 state, on one map.

Tap any cell to see league outcomes, then filter by hitter, pitcher, handedness, pitch type, year, and ballpark. A second lens shows pitch-level decisions: swing, take, chase, foul, contact, whiff.

Cells are navigation concepts, not invented historical OPS values. Actual values are withheld until event-level ingestion.

03 / Research queue

Questions worth answering

Filter by what data is required. "Available" means the concept can be derived from existing source tables, not necessarily that its exact view is already implemented.

04 / Make this shareable

A graphic and its receipt travel together.

The model for every future finding: an immediately readable number or graphic, a one-sentence interpretation, the exact population and window, and a permalink into the underlying analysis.

See an existing shareable discovery